What forecast do the markets give for cryptocurrency in 2024?

December is the month when many experts begin making predictions for the coming year. And today we will look at what awaits us in the coming year?

Forecasts can be completely different, wrong or true, but market participants usually put their money where their mouth is. Therefore, you can be sure that everyone makes a forecast about what they sincerely believe.

What is a prediction market?

In such markets, people place bets on various real-time events. From the more serious (like the war in the Middle East), to the extremely absurd (about the personal life of Johnny Depp).

The answers to questions like these are usually quite simple: “Yes” or “No.” Participants buy contracts and wait for results. When the trade is completed, the winning side receives $1 for each contract purchased, while the losing side is left with nothing.

For example, bets on whether Christopher Nolan will win the Oscar for Best Director for Oppenheimer. “Yes” contracts traded at 68 cents, showing the market's willingness to see 68% approval.

Such markets are not just speculation. Their opinion influences the public and changes the point of view of many people.

Historically, prediction markets existed on centralized websites where bets were made using fiat currency.

Now they are becoming more popular among the crypto community, giving rise to new platforms based on the blockchain.

Thanks to decentralization, people can calmly raise any controversial issues without fear of restrictions from centralized organizations.

Now, after reviewing the above information, we can look at the forecasts that traders are making right now for the upcoming 2024.

Which projects will have Airdrops in the coming 2024?

Polymarket is by far the largest blockchain-based prediction market. For this reason, the opinions of traders on this platform can be considered a priority.

Based on Polymarket trading levels, the Aleo project has almost a 50/50 chance of airdropping by April. The Pudgy Penguins NFT collection has only an 11% chance of doing so before March, while the Blast layer 2 blockchain could do so with 62% probability by May 2024.

The trading volume on these issues is small, only a few thousand dollars each. For this reason, you can listen to the opinions of these traders, but you always need to independently study projects and make independent decisions.

Will the Kraken exchange go public? Will OpenSea have its own token?

These are quite interesting questions that Polymarket users are actively asking. If 21% vote for the likelihood of the Kraken exchange becoming public by June, then OpenSea issuing its own token by May is only 13%. Although the option that this will happen within 2024 is already acceptable to 67% of traders.

Polymarket also has many other forecasts in which anyone can participate: Will a specific bridge be hacked by a certain date? Will a specific platform be protected from bankruptcy?

Every trader who makes a forecast on such a platform leaves a mark on history and influences the market, regardless of the size of his bets.

Also, betting on another well-known prediction market, Zeitgeist, is voting on whether Sam Bankman-Fried will receive 50 years in prison in March (with a 42% probability according to the market)?

Prediction markets like this give you the freedom to have your own opinion and the opportunity to find out whether other market participants agree with it?

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